Car Values Gone Wild

[Stoffregen Motorsports]

I regularly keep track of collector car values, and I have noticed some crazy numbers lately. $800,000 Porsche 911's, $120,000 FJ40's...

 

It's kind of neat to think that cars that I grew up with are now basking in the glow of gold bouillon, but it also makes me sad that I will never be able to afford that 1985 Porsche 930 Turbo I have always wanted. And also, there's a value at which it renders a car too valuable to drive. That truly makes me emotional. Carroll Shelby's personal Cobra sold for $5.5 mil and is now part of a permanent exhibit at the Smithsonian. It will never be driven again.

 

Japanese cars are starting to see some high numbers too. That KPGC10 that just sold for almost a quarter of a million dollars seems like chump change when compared to a Toyota 2000GT.

 

What are your thoughts? Predictions on future values? Past predictions that came true? Bloated values/sales numbers that make you sick? Cars you think are under valued?

 

 

[Draker]

Prices will continue to climb for Datsuns. Some more than others... 510's.. roadsters.. We've have all seen it already.

[MicroMachinery]

I was looking forward to some drunk, young car values pulling off their tops. Lame.

[Stoffregen Motorsports]

I'm having a hard time picturing that.

[Stoffregen Motorsports]

Prices will continue to climb for Datsuns. Some more than others... 510's.. roadsters.. We've have all seen it already.

What's a good 510 worth now days? $25K?

[oldskoolvws]

It all depends on collectability. IMO 510's will not see 50's-60's VW beetle prices. The aftermarket for the Type1 is wicked. The WORLDWIDE demand is huge. You can practically build an entire car off of repop parts. The aftermarket for 510's and many other Datsuns is minimal and that's why they are dying out over time. The 240 is a whole other story. Just like a 23 window Kombi. Think the record is $235K, but I heard it was beat at $285K recently. My mom had one in my early years. Picked up for $2500 used. She used to also have an original FJ, picked up for $4K. Jay Leno did wonders for the 510 market, but unfortunately not sustainable or available. The 240 market will go up for the pristine models as it was a benchmark car for the brand. I could be all kinds of wrong though.

 

Its all based on supply, demand and trend. We all clown on the guy who puts $40K into his 510 / 521 / 620 / whatever, then asks for $25K when he goes to sell. He gets flamed for asking for too much. And that's the problem. For the market to increase, the trend has to support demand and the supply dictates price. Japanese iron is a very limited market. The world market is a great playground for the options sold worldwide, but in the U.S., well we get Ratsun :)

[q-tip]

Just wait. We are in a lull where the demand is high and the aftermarket can't keep up, in the next 10 years the Datsun aftermarket will explode. Its already starting, tons of stuff starting to come out of south east Asia right and I think the market will only expand from there. The Datsun right now are what the late sixties early seventies american cars were 20 years ago......just wait....

[720inOlyWa]

To a large degree, I agree with oldskool. But I think you are overlooking the ‘Cuba’ effect, which is going to lift all serviceable vintage cars, like ours. We represent the leading edge of the effect insomuch as we are cobbling together very good little vehicles out of largely JY parts, ingenuity, and a lack of dollars. sure, there are some really neat high dollar project cars in here, but there are a lot of people trying to build or rehab an oldie on the cheap... to drive... and haul shit, without costing an arm and a leg.

 

Take 4 cylinder Japanese trucks. They just don’t make them anymore. Until the manufacturers realize the mistake they made by stopping, and start to produce sweet little KIA trucks for 4 grand again, all of the existing examples of the 4 cylinder type are out there on the road, wearing out.

 

They were cheap and serviceable trucks and they were well designed, if not always perfectly manufactured. The designs were always pretty good, and a driveway mechanic, like me, can buy one and get it back to reliable street status for less than two grand. Where are you going to get a sweet little burro truck for 2 grand these days?

 

I don’t have $1,500 into either of my 720s yet, including purchase price. But I do have a bout 250 hours of learning / labor invested. The Cuba effect. As more of these burros either die or get nabbed for rehab, the prices are going up, up, up. Today, they are still available for a relatively cheap price. Bargain prices, really. Before long, a good example of a burro truck will cost at least as much as it sold for new. And they will be well worth it, in many cases. Mine are!

 

The coolest thing about the Cuba effect is that the vehicles themselves become so beautifully hand worked, and individualized. Once again, you all probably think if this as the Ratsun effect. Call it what you will, either way, up, up, up. That is why I am always on the lookout for another bargain 720, stranded at the crossroads of CraigsList Avenue, and Pull A Part Boulevard.

[Dolomite]

Shit is getting out of hand, fuck speculators and non driving enthusiast collectors. They are the scum that make it impossible for real car people to save up for their dream ride.

 

On the undervalued front, and I'm prepared for the flaming, the '85-'89 t bird turbocoupe is very underrated. Very comfortable, fast as hell, and handle better than you'd think. I had one and wish I still did. Good to know there's still some good value out there.

[Stoffregen Motorsports]

I agree with q-tip. It's the calm before the feeding frenzy.

 

One aspect of collectibility is the aftermarket. I hope and fear at the same time (and predict) that the Datsun and Japanese cars in general will see a huge explosion of aftermarket parts, which in turn will add to the collectibility, which in turn will make the cars easier to restore. A feeding frenzy will then happen which will drive up the prices of either the restored cars or restorable cars, probably not both right away.

 

The fear is that the parts will be inferior (look at muscle car replacement parts) and not a very high quality. But by then, maybe the new enthusiast won't care because he wasn't around when the parts were good so he doesn't know the difference. This could have a long term detrimental affect on the values of restorable cars, but not high quality restored cars. Maybe it will affect both segments, but the latter to a lesser degree.

 

I will say that one of the reasons I sold my 320 was the lack of quality replacement parts. I searched for 10 years for a set of door window rubber to no avail. I wasn't going to keep a car (truck) that wasn't weather proof, which made the decision to sell that much easier.

[Stoffregen Motorsports]

Shit is getting out of hand, fuck speculators and non driving enthusiast collectors. They are the scum that make it impossible for real car people to save up for their dream ride.

 

On the undervalued front, and I'm prepared for the flaming, the '85-'89 t bird turbocoupe is very underrated. Very comfortable, fast as hell, and handle better than you'd think. I had one and wish I still did. Good to know there's still some good value out there.

I agree about the Turbo Coupe. SHO's too.

 

Regarding the speculator comment, I am of that breed. I am not ashamed to say, I make a good portion of my income identifying collectibles before they hit and then cashing out when they do.

 

Don't hate me for being a snake. I try to elevate the sport in the process.

[oldskoolvws]

In order for the aftermarket to exist, there has to be a demand. Unless someone is hardcore, most businesses / enthusiasts will not foot the $10K+ it takes in capital for one part. As an example, about 4 years ago I approached Randy from Vintage Rubber through a mutual friend. I asked about him looking at repopping the 521 vent seals. He looked into it and the dies would be handmade from an oldskool dude however the costs were high. I think he stated something like $15K. He would have to sell 50 sets at $300 to break even. I told him the supply was there but he was not willing to risk the capital on my word. I would have done the same.

 

Now you can get them from Tailand.

 

The perfect example of collector variance. The Cobra and the Sunbeam were near identical cars in performance. The Sunbeam became the bastid child and is still somewhat affordable to the collector. Not the Cobra.

[Ratwagon1600]

What's a good 510 worth now days? $25K?

Down here prices are around $10k plus for an "average car" i.e. L series stocker.

 

Mind you, these are asking prices, not necessarily what the vendor is receiving.

 

It appears te "leno effect" is alive and well here.

[MikeRL411]

It all depemds on the BUYER /seller at the moment! The seller has the impossible hope the all the hours and parts he/she has put in to the vehicle counts for the botom line.   It doesn't!  What counts is what the motivationed buyer is emotiatively urged to bid as a cash on the spot offer! It has no  equivalion to any so calleed "book Value".  Ask me. I rejected an impossibly high cash offer on my RL411 two years ogo.

[DanielC]

I have a few Datsun 521 trucks, from about 1972, or so.   I was driving one as a daily driver, until about the mid 1990's.   But I needed a larger, enclosed vehicle, that could haul live sound equipment.  I got a Ford Aerostar, and that suited me for several years.  When I got the Aerostar, I could fill it's 20 gallon tank for about $20.00.  

The Aerostar filled a need.  It still does,  It can also tow my 1997 Ski Nautique,  the boat weighs about 2,400 pounds, and the trailer adds another 1,000 pounds?    A little too much for a Datsun 521.  Especially when launch ramps are considered.

 

About the mid 2,000's, I started to think about, and occasionally work on getting a Datsun 521 running again.  Many parts were not available.  The rapid rise in the price of gasoline was a motivator.  $4.00 a gallon, meant $80.00 fillup in the Aerostar.

 

April of 2011, I bought a 521 I call Ratsun.  This truck.  http://community.ratsun.net/topic/30606-my-ratsun-datsun-521/

I bought Ratsun as parts for another 521 I have, but it turned out that Ratsun got running first.

 

So, I have been paying attention to the prices, and availability of Datsun 521's and parts for them about 10 years now.

 

It seems to me, that a few years ago, that a 521 or two would pop up in a local junk yard about every four to six months.  It had been a while longer since I have seen a 521 in a junk yard now.  In 2011, when I was working on getting Ratsun running, I still could get a lot of the water hoses at a Nissan dealer.  Not so much anymore.

 

What drives the price of old Datsuns?  Simply supply, and demand.   The supply is slowly shrinking.  Some Datsuns are scrapped,, and sold for the weight of the metal in them.  Some get crashed.  

For a long time, few people knew about the value of Datsuns.  But the Leno effect changed that, a bit, for 510's.  The 240 Zas the "flagship Datsun" held a high value.  So do the roadsters.

The 521 was the ignored little brother of the Datsun line.   But I am no longer seeing them as often, in junkyards, or for sale.

 

I am thinking there is going to be a period of time, maybe now, maybe soon, when there might be tempoirary increase in the supply of 1970 Datsuns, simply because people like me, who were entering driving age in the 1970's are getting old.  I am 60.  In the next 30 yearsor less, somebody may have to deal with the Datsuns I have. 

[MikeRL411]

SUPPLY AND DEMAND!  plus a little greed!

[oldskoolvws]

A 1975 MK1 VW Scirocco is a holy grail in California because of it's first year provisions (double wipers, aluminum emblems and sills, etc). But more importantly, it is the only Scirocco that is smog exempt. This alone drives the price of the car through the roof (yes, I have one). I drove from NorCal to Arizona via the I-10 to pick up another for a buddy. Its that worth it. In that market, the asking rate can exceed $6K-$10K depending on condition. For all 76 and above the price goes down incrementally.

 

But many have stated exactly the issue; supply, demand (and trend). Always falls to those. But the issue is and Daniel stated, as supply dwindles, demand may go up BUT that demand is in a very limited market. Part of the Datsun issue is that many cherish it as a "Ratsun" mentality. In order for the demand to increase, Datsuns need to be restored to original or modified state that is desirable and creates a market. Primer, roof racks and beer catch cans don't cut it. Its paint, it OEM parts, its cool swaps that make the car desirable. Until this happens, the market will remain stagnant.

[ericsb210]

^^^^And that is when I will be done

[Stoffregen Motorsports]

 Part of the Datsun issue is that many cherish it as a "Ratsun" mentality. In order for the demand to increase, Datsuns need to be restored to original or modified state that is desirable and creates a market. Primer, roof racks and beer catch cans don't cut it. Its paint, it OEM parts, its cool swaps that make the car desirable. Until this happens, the market will remain stagnant.

 

You said it. A new type of Datsun owner will need to enter the marketplace.

 

Look at what happened to Hot Rods. Perfect example of how one type of buyer gave way to another. The guys who were maybe a little young to build one in the 50's now all of a sudden had good jobs and were willing to pay the high cost of having someone build a real nice car for them. It's a demographic and socioeconomic thing.

 

I don't hate the guys who have the money. I just wish I was on the spot early enough to enjoy the rise in hot rod prices. Same goes for sports cars and full size trucks. I missed the window on a lot of vehicles.

 

 

[Stoffregen Motorsports]

^^^^And that is when I will be done

Be done because you can csh out and move on, not because you can't stand the new buyers and what it says about them.

[MicroMachinery]

I just wish I was on the spot early enough to enjoy the rise in hot rod prices. Same goes for sports cars and full size trucks. I missed the window on a lot of vehicles.

 

 

Go out and buy yourself some early 90's stuff, then. A couple 240sx's, a B13 SE-R or two.. Toyota Tacoma and an MR2 while you're at it. It'll happen again.

[Stoffregen Motorsports]

A few years back I was flipping through the pages of a Schwinn Sting Ray book and remembering all those cool bikes from when I was a kid while at the same time, thinking about the asking prices seen regularly at swap meets. I then wondered if it would ever happen to BMX bikes. My conclusion was that the reason the Schwinn's were so prized was because the people who collected them rememberd seeing them in the store windows or in Schwinn catalogs, all the same except for a few details. I figured BMX bikes would never become valuable because they weren't built complete until people brought home the frame, forks, bars, wheels, etc. Boy was I wrong.

 

Two years ago I sold my JMC (that I had as a kid) for $1000 without tires, chain, brakes.

 

The reason that makes Schwinn Sting Rays so popular is the same reason that store bought complete BMX bikes are not valuable. Only the early builder BMX's are worth anything.

 

So there's no rhyme or reason as to what makes something valuable.

[angliagt]

 

 

This happened to Austin Healeys,in the late '70's.

I bought one for $1,000,around 1975 (bargain even then),put

$300 into it,& sold it for $2,100.I made $800!!

Right after that,prices strarted to go way up.A driver

is in the $30 - $40K price range,with nice ones going for $60K,

& up.I lost all interested in buying another one,at least for

these prices.

On the other hand,I just picked up a 1974 MG Midget,garage-

kept,but needs work,for $350 (as if I need another project!).

 

- Doug

[fredges]

Back around '89 I had a 1963 23-window deluxe microbus (Samba). It was rusted to hell, but it was OG and it ran, and I drove it around a while.

 

I sold it for $300.

 

Just shoot me please.

[Dolomite]

I agree about the Turbo Coupe. SHO's too.

 

Regarding the speculator comment, I am of that breed. I am not ashamed to say, I make a good portion of my income identifying collectibles before they hit and then cashing out when they do.

 

Don't hate me for being a snake. I try to elevate the sport in the process.

I was referring to non enthusiast speculators, those that see cars as only a commodity.